Strong economic growth and elevated inflation is putting upward pressure on bond yields and that will put downward pressure on the economy at a time when stocks reflect a strong economy. A strong US economy has become the consensus expectation: the Bloomberg US 2024 consensus forecast is that the US economy will grow by 2.4% and that consumer prices will rise by 3% while the unemployment rate will stay at a historically low level at 3.9%. That is a description of a strong economy with inflation that is above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation goal. It is also a big shift away from the pessimistic expectations that ... (full story)